Thursday, July 3, 2025

Bitcoin Wobbles: US Jobs Data Stalls Rally, Fed Rate Cuts in Doubt

Bitcoin's price dipped after strong US jobs data dimmed hopes for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, impacting short-term gains and market sentiment.

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Bitcoin Wobbles: US Jobs Data Stalls Rally, Fed Rate Cuts in Doubt

Bitcoin‘s Price Reacts to Robust US Job Numbers

The cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp reversal on Thursday, with Bitcoin (BTC) shedding gains following the release of stronger-than-expected US employment data. The nonfarm payrolls report showed a surge in job additions, coupled with a decrease in unemployment, defying pre-release market expectations. This data prompted a quick recalibration in market sentiment, as the likelihood of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve diminished. The initial bullish momentum, which had briefly pushed Bitcoin towards $110,300, was swiftly erased.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Re-Evaluated

The robust jobs report significantly altered the market’s anticipation regarding the Federal Reserve‘s monetary policy. With a stronger economy and rising employment figures, the pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates in July appears to have lessened considerably. Analysts, including those from Material Indicators and Bitwise, have pointed out this shift, with some suggesting that the market is now pricing in fewer rate cuts overall through the end of 2025. This contrasts with the preceding day’s private-sector jobs report which had suggested an opposite trend. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool highlighted the diminishing probability of a rate change before the September meeting.

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Market Liquidity and Price Levels Under Scrutiny

Despite the short-term price correction, market observers are debating the long-term implications of a stronger US economy for Bitcoin. While the immediate reaction to the jobs data was a price dip, some analysts believe that a robust economy will ultimately benefit the cryptocurrency market. Critical support levels, particularly around $108,000, are now being closely watched. Successful maintenance of these levels is viewed as crucial for any further upward movement, with targets projected toward $112,000 or even $120,000. Monitoring tools such as CoinGlass confirm that significant liquidity remains in place both above and below the prevailing price levels.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Expert Perspectives and Future Outlook

Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, offered a contrasting viewpoint, asserting that the initial price drop was a short-term reaction. He highlighted the potential for a stronger US economy to fuel long-term market growth. Another commentator, Daan Crypto Trades, stressed the importance of Bitcoin staying above $108,000 to maintain the bullish trajectory. This underscores the split viewpoints on how the jobs report will impact the future performance of Bitcoin. However, the impact of the US economy cannot be ignored, and a healthy economy will ultimately act as a catalyst for economic growth, as well as the performance of Bitcoin.

Disclaimer

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are advised to conduct their own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Every trading decision involves risk.

Sarah Walker
Sarah Walker
Sarah Walker is an educator dedicated to demystifying cryptocurrency for beginners. Her clear and concise guides, glossaries, and tutorials empower newcomers to confidently engage with the crypto space.

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